India (the largest democracy of
the world) is forecasted to overtake China as the most populous country within
a decade (by 2027), according to a United Nations report. China and India
combined currently account for 38 per cent of the world’s population, with 1.43
billion and 1.37 billion people respectively. India is also the youngest
country in the world with the millennial population as large as the population
of USA . Though, it is interesting to note that even with the said population
and demographic dividend, the nation still depends on fashion forecasts and
trend reports that are not largely meant for India! The reports are typically
developed in west and mostly either Europe centric or very 'American' unless
they are focused on Japan/ Korean youth/pop culture. The question is why this
country lacks an indigenous fashion forecast powered with our ethnicity,
plurality, cultural richness and global vision. Or is it the market worth of Rs
20,000 crore (was US$ 102.2 Billion in 2018) is not
lucrative enough to develop a forecast? The market is further projected to reach
US$ 225.7 Billion by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 14.2% during 2019-2024. There are three key factors
that I will explain below:
1) One
key factor is how this market in India is segmented. The branded Fashion
market's size is nearly one fourth of this or Rs 5,000 crore. Designer wear, in
turn, covers only about 0.2 % of the branded apparel market. Hence, three
fourth of the market is still unorganized and dominated by family run shops at the bottom of pyramid which
depends on age-old Judaad (manage) as ‘cut and paste’ method of developing
their products. If we analyse the 0.2% designer wear, most of them designs the
same lahenga-cholis (Indian ethnic wear), Salwars/ Kurtis and sarees years
after year. Those who are in niche western-wear, are also not visibly
experimental in their collection (apart from Manish or few Gen Next designers).
This is also because their clients seek ethnic
wear from designers and buys western wear whenever they travel abroad (“oh,
this one is Chanel ka latest collection… from our last holiday in Paris”). The
dominant colonial gene still prevails, among many Indians. Moreover, the resell
value of global luxury brands are much higher than the domestic designer-wear. The
branded fashion market (largely family owned) is still at nascent stage and
hardly allocates any money in consumer research or trend analysis comparative
to their global counterpart.
2) Most of the branded market are into
menswear (Rs 1,24,423 crore/ US $19 billion) where the scope to forecast
‘shift’ is much lesser than the women’s wear. Hence, the scopes of business for a
fashion forecasting agency focusing on domestic market is not lucrative at this
moment unless they can addresses the local nuances and attract all market
players across the country.
3) Another key challenge for the
forecasting agencies is the vastness and plurality of this country. It’s
cultural maze, socio-political tectonic-shift and ever-changing consumer mind-set
baffles many. My theory of Adopted Differentiation defines the logic behind it.
The sheer number of Indians (133.92 crores in 2017 comparing to 32.57 crores in
USA) may sound lucrative but the segmentation is opaque and with multiple
layers superimposing each other, the very mantle of consumer need remains a
curtailed black-box.
The
psychophysics of consumer response is key to understand the very essence of
this market which very few could crack in past. Right from the automobile,
electronics and fashion many brands that arrived in India lured by sheer number
had to shut their shops in past few decades. Artificial Intelligence will not
work to resolve cultural maze or mind-mapping. Essentially, a ‘human mind’ can
only map another ‘human mind’ but the mind has to be from the same swarm.
Unfortunately, most of the agencies working in India are depending upon their ‘global
intelligence’ and not trying to build their ‘local hive’. Building local hive
takes time, energy, patience and selection of right ‘mind’. However, with millennials
taking over the consumption power with their voracious ever-evolving need
(coupled with mounting ‘unhappiness’, ‘depression’, social stress and ‘rebooting
identity’), the job of agencies looking for developing indigenous forecast will
be tougher in future unless they hire and nurture the right home-grown team to
execute the same.
(Original
article published by Dr. Kaustav SenGupta, All copyrights reserved)
